[00] The investigation
DORABELLA · UNSOLVED SINCE 1897

The investigation

What I read about Elgar’s 1897 cipher, what I built to attack it, and what came out — every claim with the test behind it.

Case status

stateUNSOLVEDsince 14 July 1897
glyphs8729 / 31 / 27
distinct20of 24 possible
orientation χ²26.6p = 0.0003
best z vs English−7.5real English ≈ 0
hunt space108Mcandidates, 15 families

Every number on this site is either computed live in your browser from my transcription, or was produced by my own scripts (the Python lab, the browser toolkit and the server hunt) and is quoted with the test behind it. Background facts come from the sources listed in [12].

The argument in six lines

1. Elgar's alphabet is 24 glyphs — one, two or three arcs facing one of eight directions. His own 1920s notebook draws it on a clock face: radius for the number of arcs, angle for the direction. My snowflake grid is the same object, so the key is a polar diagram.

2. I transcribed the note myself, glyph by glyph, and flagged nine glyphs I could not decide. The resolved reading agrees with a published 1:1 reading at 82/87 with zero letter collisions — a shuffled null averages 28.7, p < 5×10⁻⁵. The transcription is sound.

3. My first idea — a key that turns one step per glyph — is dead. A 45° turn keeps the ring, so a regular rotation forces the eight direction counts towards 10.9 each whatever the key. Dorabella's are 10 8 9 16 15 3 4 22: χ² = 26.6, and 40,000 simulated rotating ciphertexts give p = 0.0003. No key, no solver, no corpus needed.

4. It looks like language: index of coincidence, entropy, doubled glyphs, repeated bigrams and the letter-frequency profile all sit inside the range of 87 letters of real English.

5. But it does not read like English. Solved at the same effort as 40 real-English controls, every reading order lands 7.5 to 9.6 standard deviations below them — while the same solver recovers a median 87 of 87 letters on the controls. Hauer et al. (2021) and Wase (2023) reached the same conclusion independently.

6. English frequencies with non-English order is the fingerprint of a second layer (a rearrangement, or a key that moves irregularly) or of a plaintext that is not ordinary English. I built a long-running search for the first branch that is designed to say “nothing” loudly rather than “solution” softly. Nothing I have run has produced a reading.

What this is

In late August 2026 I spent a few intense days on the Dorabella cipher. It started as a hunch — the 24 glyphs are eight directions times three sizes, so perhaps the key is a snowflake that turns while you write — and grew into my own transcription, a Python research lab, a browser toolkit, and a server search built to run for months. Along the way I read everything I could find about Elgar, his other ciphers, and every published attempt.

This site keeps all of it, sorted: what I read, what I did, and — on its own page — every attempt with an honest verdict on whether it was worth the time.

Background — what I read

Investigation — what I did

Reference

What is in this project

site
this investigation, one page per section
transcription
my own, with its nine ambiguities and three readings — [05]
lab
the Python scripts behind the statistics: structure tests, annealing solver, calibration, model comparison — results in [07] and [08]
toolkit
my browser tools — encipher, a seven-phase decipher with solver and key hunt, a transposition bench, string experiments — [13]
hunt
a stdlib-only Python search built to run for months, with a live dashboard — [09]
sources
papers, articles, scans and Commons images, each attributed — [12]